Welcome to another week of Deep League analysis! This week, we're diving into the risers and fallers, exploring the players who are making waves and those who are struggling to find their footing. As always, I'll be offering my expert commentary and insights, so let's get started!
Risers
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets is having a breakout season in San Diego, and his recent surge has seen him become a key player for the Padres. With a .256/.333/.543 line, 9 homers, and 3 steals, Sheets is a force to be reckoned with. His ability to maintain his growth and push his barrel rate higher is impressive, and his chase rate is the only metric where he comes in below league average. Sheets is a legitimate power source, and his increase in stolen bases is a welcome surprise. I believe Sheets can slug 25-30 homers this year with a 250ish average, and he's a player I'd definitely add to my roster. I'd even toss an offer out there if I thought I could swing a deal.
Carson Benge
Carson Benge is a rookie outfielder who has been rolling in May with a .350/.409/.483 line. His sprint speed, hard hit rates, and exit velocities are all slightly above average, and his chase, whiff, and K rates are strong. Benge's process chart supports his improved performance, and the Mets have taken notice, moving him to the leadoff spot. While I don't expect big power from Benge this season, he's up to 8 steals already, and with the move to the leadoff spot, 30 seems like an achievable total. I think Benge should be rostered in leagues of all sizes from here on out.
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz is a high swing rate, lots of contact, low walk rate player who has had a useful season in 2023. With a .333/.343/.788 line, 3 homers, 7 runs scored, and 12 RBI over just nine games in May, Ruiz is a great Cal replacement for fantasy teams with holes at their catcher positions. While his contact rate is dipping, it remains well above league average, and his power output has been trending up sharply. The Nationals' high-scoring offense makes Ruiz a valuable piece, and I think he has a chance to offer more upside than expected.
Fallers
Cole Young
Cole Young was a helpful player for a whole month, but he has not carried that momentum into May. With a .175/.254/.246 line, no homers, stolen bases, or runs scored, Young's regression was to be expected. His average hard hit rate, exit velocity, hard hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and walk rate are all just a bit below their respective MLB averages. However, I would hold Young through this slow period, as I don't think he'll give you the counting stats he did for the first month. Double-digit steals and homers with a respectable batting average still looks achievable.
Colt Keith
Colt Keith was one of the first players I wrote about this season, and I was over the moon about his year-over-year gains in exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate. However, Keith has struggled in May, slashing just .216/.293/.243 with no homers and just 4 runs scored. His high BABIP of .333 is unsustainable, and he hasn't provided much for fantasy purposes. Keith's decision value and contact ability have dipped below the mean, and I'm barely seeing any upside. I was pretty sure we were witnessing a breakout a month ago, but now I'm not so sure.
Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez was our featured player back in week 4, and while he has picked up the stolen base pace, his walk rate remains low and his K rate has stuck around 25%. Fernandez chases too much and doesn't get many barrels, and his BABIP has dropped to .240 in May. His line of .162/.225/.189 has been pretty rough, and his process chart displays a lot of variability, with everything trending downward lately. While there is talent here, I think Fernandez could benefit from time at AAA, and if Pavin Smith ever makes it back, I expect Fernandez to head down.
